A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
